Conifer Management, LLC 13F holdings and portfolio analysis

準備完了Conifer Management, LLC · Greg Alexander

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Baseline

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Baselinetested
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baseline13FChat AI
What does directly following the disclosed baseline portfolio expose an investor to?

Directly following the baseline means accepting very high concentration in a small set of cyclical and financial names. The baseline top 5 holdings are 96.77% of the portfolio, with GPI at 31.4%, EQH at 28.11%, LAD at 18.67%, BUR at 15.22%, and SDHC at 3.37%. Sector exposure is similarly concentrated: Consumer Discretionary is 53.44%, Financials 43.33%, and Information Technology only 3.23%. The upside is differentiated market exposure, with beta of 0.6 and positive alpha of 0.43, but the structure makes outcomes heavily dependent on a handful of holdings after a reporting lag.

↳Map the baseline top holdings into cyclical, financial, and tech buckets and estimate which bucket drives most of the portfolio risk.
baseline13FChat AI
Which recent baseline periods best explain the risk-return trade-off?

The recent baseline periods that best show the trade-off are 2024-12-31, 2025-03-31, and 2025-06-30. In 2024-12-31 the baseline lost only -0.81% while SPY lost -3.63%, producing +2.81% excess return, which highlights downside resilience. But in 2025-03-31 the portfolio returned 1.07% versus SPY’s 9.22% for -8.15% excess, and in 2025-06-30 it lost -5.35% while SPY gained 4.2%, a -9.55% excess gap. Those periods capture the pattern of lower-beta protection in some drawdowns but weak participation in stronger benchmark rallies.

↳Plot the baseline’s worst excess-return quarters against turnover and concentration to see whether misses came from stale holdings or stock selection.
baseline13FChat AI
What should a user inspect next before deciding whether the baseline is acceptable?

Before accepting the baseline, a user should inspect concentration stability, turnover spikes, and filing-lag sensitivity. Concentration is extreme, with top5 at 96.77%, so even small thesis breaks in GPI, EQH, LAD, or BUR can materially change outcomes. Turnover is not always low: the turnoverSeries hit 70.33 in 2019-12-31, 38.49 in 2022-03-31, and 20.53 in 2023-06-30, which means live implementation may differ from a static 13F copy. The artifact also warns that the backtest covers only 24 periods and that positions may be stale by effective trade dates, so checking holding-level change timing is essential.

↳Show me the baseline holdings and turnover for the quarters with the biggest implementation risk from filing lag.
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