Miller Value Partners, LLC 13F holdings and portfolio analysis

準備完了Miller Value Partners, LLC · Bill Miller

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Baseline

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Baselinetested
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baseline13FChat AI
What does directly following the disclosed baseline portfolio expose an investor to?

Directly following the baseline exposes an investor to a concentrated, cyclical, small- and mid-cap heavy book with notable stock-specific risk. In the baseline artifact, top 5 holdings are 39.12%, top 10 are 60.22%, and top 20 are 87.97%. The biggest positions are NBR at 11.72%, LNC at 8.05%, GTN at 6.92%, TDAY at 6.28%, and QUAD at 6.15%. Sector weights are led by Financials at 21.47%, Industrials at 17.85%, Communication Services at 16.09%, and Energy at 14.85%, which means the portfolio is not broad-market neutral and is highly exposed to cyclical earnings sensitivity.

↳Break down baseline exposure by single-name concentration and sector concentration versus SPY.
baseline13FChat AI
Which recent baseline periods best explain the risk-return trade-off?

The recent baseline periods show why the return profile is acceptable only if an investor can tolerate uneven excess performance. Stronger periods included 2023-03-31, when the baseline returned 12.96% versus SPY’s 7.90% for +5.06 pts excess, and 2025-09-30, when it returned 7.48% versus 1.49% for +6.00 pts excess. But weak periods were meaningful too: 2024-06-30 returned 5.35% versus SPY’s 9.83% (-4.48 pts excess), and 2024-12-31 returned -6.71% versus -3.63% (-3.08 pts excess). Turnover also spiked to 110.42 in 2024-03-31, showing that some alpha came with sharp implementation activity rather than smooth compounding.

↳Show me the baseline’s best and worst excess-return quarters together with turnover and trade counts.
baseline13FChat AI
What should a user inspect next before deciding whether the baseline is acceptable?

A user should inspect three things next: concentration, implementation friction, and lag risk. Concentration is high, with top 10 at 60.22% in the baseline artifact. Implementation is not trivial either: the backtest estimates total trading cost at 1.8225, with 1,306 trades, and turnover reached 110.42 in 2024-03-31. Finally, the baseline risk notes explicitly state that the strategy uses filing-delay implementation after 13F reporting lags, so even a good-looking backtest may be harder to capture in live investing. If those three issues are tolerable, the 9.41% annualized return and 0.71 beta may still be attractive.

↳Walk me through baseline concentration, turnover, and filing-lag risks before I consider copying it.
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