XLI — XLI | S&P 500 Industrials Sector ETF 13F holdings and portfolio analysis

已就緒XLI | S&P 500 Industrials Sector ETF · Michael Riley

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Baseline

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策略問答參考3 條參考問答

基於這隻基金最新一期數據預生成的問答，可直接作為對話上下文使用。

baseline13FChat AI
What does directly following the disclosed baseline portfolio expose an investor to?

Directly following the baseline mainly exposes an investor to concentrated industrial sector risk with benchmark-like market sensitivity. The baseline keeps the disclosed holdings with no active reweighting, and the top holdings are led by GE at 6.82%, Caterpillar at 5.62%, RTX at 5.16%, GE Vernova at 3.72%, and Boeing at 3.57%. Concentration is moderate at the stock level with top 5 at 24.89% and top 10 at 38.98%, but the sector exposure is effectively all Industrials in the strategy artifact, with sectorWeights at 100.06% Industrials. In backtest terms, that produced 12.17% annualized return and 211.75% total return, but alpha stayed negative at -0.46 and max drawdown reached -42.06%.

↳Show me how much of the baseline’s risk comes from the top 10 names versus the rest of the industrial basket.
baseline13FChat AI
Which recent baseline periods best explain the risk-return trade-off?

The recent baseline periods show a portfolio that can beat SPY in rebounds but also suffers in turnover-heavy weak stretches. The strongest recent month was 2025-11-30, when optimizedReturn was 3.55% versus benchmarkReturn 0.99% for +2.56% excess with turnover 1.04. Another strong rebound was 2025-04-30 at 8.65% versus 6.28%, a +2.36% excess month. But the trade-off shows up in weaker momentum-sensitive periods: 2025-07-31 returned -0.15% versus SPY’s 2.05% for -2.20% excess, 2025-09-30 returned 0.06% versus 2.05% for -1.99% excess, and 2025-10-31 returned -1.00% versus 0.20% for -1.19% excess. Those mixed period outcomes help explain why absolute return is solid but alpha remains negative.

↳Rank the baseline’s recent periods by excess return and flag which ones had the highest turnover.
baseline13FChat AI
What should a user inspect next before deciding whether the baseline is acceptable?

Before accepting the baseline, a user should inspect three things: concentration, downside profile, and implementation stability. Concentration is manageable by stock but still material for a sector ETF, with top 10 at 38.98% and top 20 at 57.55%. Downside profile is the bigger issue: max drawdown was -42.06%, downsideDeviation 15.665, and recoveryDays 162. Implementation stability also matters because the baseline risk notes show one period reached 97.98% turnover, and the baseline artifact reports 8,615 trades despite modest estimated total cost of 0.7276. In short, the next step is not more return analysis—it is checking whether the investor can tolerate industrial-sector drawdowns and the path dependence created by turnover and reporting lag.

↳Summarize the baseline’s drawdown, turnover, and lag risks in plain English for a long-term investor.
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