Punch Card Management LP 13F holdings and portfolio analysis
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Baseline
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Directly following the baseline means accepting an extremely concentrated four-stock portfolio with heavy exposure to Financials and Consumer Discretionary. In the strategy artifact, BRK.A is 44.84%, CROX 20.84%, PDD 19.28%, and PYPL 15.04%, with top 5 and top 10 both equal to 100%. Sector exposure is 59.88% Financials and 40.12% Consumer Discretionary. So the baseline is not broad market-like diversification—it is effectively a concentrated Berkshire-led bet with meaningful cyclicality from CROX and PDD plus payments exposure through PYPL.
Three recent periods best frame the baseline trade-off. First, 2024-12-31 was strong: baseline returned 4.38% versus SPY at -3.63%, for +8.01 points of excess return on only 4.86 turnover. Second, 2024-06-30 showed the downside of concentration and lagged implementation: baseline returned 5.26% versus SPY at 9.83%, a -4.57 point excess result with 41.0 turnover. Third, 2025-03-31 was the harshest recent miss, with -4.22% for baseline against +9.22% for SPY, a -13.43 point excess gap. These periods show why the strategy still posts positive long-run alpha but weak benchmark-relative consistency.
A user should inspect concentration, turnover spikes, and drawdown path before accepting the baseline. Concentration is the first check because the top holding is 44.84% and top five are effectively 100%. Turnover is next because even this passive-looking replication had sharp changes, including 41.0 turnover in 2024-06-30 and 49.59 in 2025-06-30, which matters in a lagged 13F strategy. Finally, the drawdown profile matters: despite beta of just 0.71, max drawdown still reached -31.45% and recovery took 182 days, so lower beta did not eliminate painful capital impairment.