Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Trust 13F holdings and portfolio analysis
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Baseline
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Directly following the baseline exposes an investor to a very top-heavy portfolio with sector clustering and filing-lag implementation risk. In the baseline artifact, Berkshire Hathaway is 32.38%, Waste Management 21.10%, Microsoft 12.35%, and Caterpillar 12.08%; the top five total 83.41% and top 10 reach 96.49%. Sector weights are also concentrated in Industrials at 42.56% and Financials at 32.38%, with Technology another 12.35%. That structure helped produce 14.93% annualized return, but it leaves performance heavily dependent on a few names and delayed 13F replication.
The recent periods that best show the trade-off are 2024-12-31, 2025-03-31, and 2025-09-30. In 2024-12-31 the baseline returned 3.75% versus SPY at -3.63%, a +7.37 point excess return with only 7.03 turnover. But in 2025-03-31 it returned 4.76% versus SPY’s 9.22%, a -4.46 point excess result, and in 2025-09-30 it gained just 0.61% versus 1.49% for SPY with turnover jumping to 28.82. Those periods show the appeal of occasional strong downside-relative outperformance, but also the cost of lag, concentration, and turnover sensitivity when the benchmark leads.
A user should inspect three things next: concentration, turnover spikes, and the drawdown path versus SPY. Concentration is high, with top five at 83.41% in the baseline artifact. Turnover is usually moderate but spikes matter, especially 78.07 in 2022-09-30 and 28.82 in 2025-09-30, which can raise slippage and execution risk. Finally, despite beta of 0.78, max drawdown still reached -27.78, so the navSeries and drawdownSeries should be checked to understand whether that risk profile is tolerable for a concentrated 13F strategy.