Third Point LLC 13F holdings and portfolio analysis
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Baseline
Mensajes de análisisPreguntas y respuestas pregeneradas sobre este fondo. Úsalas como contexto de referencia para tu propio análisis.
Directly following the baseline means accepting a concentrated, lagged 13F replica with moderate market sensitivity but still significant stock-specific risk. The baseline top 5 account for 35.28% and the top 10 for 56.0%, led by PCG at 7.88%, NVDA at 7.87%, AMZN at 7.15%, MSFT at 6.39%, and UNP at 5.99%. Sector exposure is concentrated in Industrials at 19.77%, Consumer Discretionary at 17.65%, Information Technology at 14.64%, Utilities at 12.60%, and Financials at 12.06%. Performance has been solid in absolute terms, but the backtest still shows beta 0.81, max drawdown -25.36%, 1,038 trades, and 3.8086% total estimated cost, so this is not a low-risk copycat trade.
Three recent periods explain the trade-off best. First, 2022-06-30 shows why the baseline can be attractive: optimized return was 1.32% versus SPY at -7.08%, for +8.39 points of excess return, even with 63.52% turnover and 22 trades. Second, 2023-09-30 shows the upside in stronger markets: the baseline gained 32.57% versus 30.95% for SPY, adding +1.62 points, but turnover also reached 88.33% with 53 trades. Third, 2025-03-31 highlights the downside of lag and concentration: the baseline returned 3.12% while SPY returned 9.22%, a -6.09-point shortfall, with 79.45% turnover and 53 trades. Together these periods show that the baseline can defend well in some difficult markets, but it can also lag sharply when the delayed holdings miss the benchmark’s leadership.
A user should inspect four things next: concentration, sector mix, implementation friction, and recent changes. Concentration is the first filter because the baseline top 10 sits at 56.0% and top 20 at 85.02%. Sector mix matters because Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Information Technology, Utilities, and Financials together account for most of the portfolio. Implementation friction is material: 1,038 trades and 3.8086% estimated total cost mean the lagged copy is not free to follow. Finally, the latest disclosed names show what the strategy really owns now, including PCG, NVDA, AMZN, MSFT, UNP, and newer additions like MTZ, RKT, CMG, and CEG.